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AFL tipsters’ guide: Winless sides ring the changes

Apr 17, 2015
Port Adelaide veteran Kane Cornes (right) has been "rested" after only two rounds.

Port Adelaide veteran Kane Cornes (right) has been "rested" after only two rounds.

Port Adelaide, Brisbane and Carlton have all made four changes as they seek to bank four points for the first time this AFL season.

The Power have promoted debutant Brendon Ah Chee, Aaron Young, Kane Mitchell and Nathan Krakouer for Saturday’s clash with North Melbourne, with hamstrung Jarman Impey, “rested” Kane Cornes and dropped duo Jake Neade and Jarrad Redden making way.

The Lions, thumped by the Kangaroos last Sunday, have omitted Matthew Leuenberger, Ryan Lester and Zac O’Brien for Saturday night’s home game against Richmond.

Michael Close is out due to his season-ending knee injury, while Brent Staker is among four inclusions and will play his first game since 2013.

The Blues welcome back veteran Andrew Walker, Ciaran Byrne, Patrick Cripps and Dennis Armfield for their MCG match on Saturday against rivals Essendon.

Clem Smith and Jason Tutt are both axed, while Simon White (knee) and Troy Menzel (calf) are sidelined with injuries.

Geelong and Gold Coast, the only other winless teams after two rounds, have also rung the changes for their meeting on Sunday.

Jimmy Bartel, Steven Motlop and Jared Rivers are named in the Cats’ 25-man squad.

Jarrod Harbrow (shoulder), Mitch Hallahan (ribs), Alex Sexton (suspension) and Greg Broughton (achilles) join captain Gary Ablett (shoulder) in being enforced omissions for the Suns.

Josh Gibson and Sam Mitchell are back for Hawthorn’s battle against the Western Bulldogs in Launceston on Sunday, when Brendan Whitecross could make a long-awaited return after two knee reconstructions.

James Frawley (pectoral) and Jono O’Rourke are cut from the Hawks’ team after their loss to Essendon in round two.

West Coast’s Simon Tunbridge (ankle), Fremantle small forward Hayden Ballantyne (suspension), Bulldogs midfielder Easton Wood (hamstring) and Geelong trio Dawson Simpson (omitted), Billie Smedts (suspension) and Andrew Mackie (quad) are the only other confirmed omissions among Sunday’s games.

Meanwhile, Sydney have confirmed Harry Cunningham will take Adam Goodes’ place in their line-up for Saturday’s cross-town derby against Greater Western Sydney.

The Swans have named Ben McGlynn, who has recovered from a hamstring injury, as an emergency.

Greater Western Sydney have promoted ruckman Andrew Phillips in place of injured forward Adam Tomlinson.

The Kangaroos have called on Ryan Bastinac and Robbie Tarrant in place of Nick Dal Santo (hamstring) and Joel Tippett, while David Astbury is among three inclusions for the Tigers.

Essendon have made one change after their thrilling win over Hawthorn, with veteran defender Dustin Fletcher back for James Gwilt.

Undefeated Adelaide have added debutant Jake Kelly and decorated veteran Scott Thompson to their squad for Saturday’s home game against Melbourne, who have selected Jay Kennedy-Harris in place of Jack Viney (leg).

In-doubt captains Scott Pendlebury and Nick Riewoldt have been named by Collingwood and St Kilda respectively for Friday night’s fixture at the MCG.

– AAP

FRIDAY, April 17

Collingwood v St Kilda at MCG 7.50pm

Head to Head: Magpies 156 Saints 57, drawn 2

Last clash: Round 11 2014 – Magpies 21.14 (140) bt Saints 8.6 (54) at Etihad Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Magpies $1.36 Saints $3.15

William Hill: Magpies $1.37 Saints $3.10

Having started the season as hot favourites to claim the wooden spoon, who would have thought the Saints would have been earning rave reviews after two rounds? But that’s what happens when your bevy of youngsters shows so much promise. Now they get to strut their stuff on the big Friday night stage. Collingwood are doing it tough on the injury front and desperately need skipper Scott Pendlebury to get up for this game. Pendlebury and Taylor Adams, also under an injury cloud, were both named in the Pies’ team.

Key: Josh Bruce. Is his early-season Coleman Medal contention a fluke or is the former Giant turning into a genuine key-forward target for the Saints?

Tip: Magpies by 15 points

SATURDAY, April 18

Carlton v Essendon at MCG 1.45pm

Head to Head: Blues 121 Bombers 114 drawn 6

Last clash: Round 23 2014 – Blues 14.6 (90) drew Bombers 13.12 (90) at MCG

Tab Sportsbet: Blues $5.15 Bombers $1.17

William Hill: Blues $5.00 Bombers $1.18

You know things are going badly at Carlton when president Mark LoGiudice felt the need to come out this week and guarantee coach Mick Malthouse would definitely see the season out. That’s never a good look. The knock on the Blues is that they have a shortage of elite young stars, which makes the loss of Troy Menzel with a calf injury even more galling. The Bombers are flying after their thrilling win over Hawthorn but will need to find a long-term replacement for David Myers, who has undergone shoulder surgery.

Key: Blue-chip midfielders Dyson Heppell and Jobe Watson are leading the way for the Bombers. With the notable exception of Chris Judd, the same definitely can’t be said for the Blues.

Tip: Bombers by 30 points

Adelaide v Melbourne at Adelaide Oval 2.10pm

Head to Head: Crows 21 Demons 12

Last clash: Round 7 2014 – Demons 11.4 (70) bt Crows 9.13 (67) at Adelaide Oval

Tab Sportsbet: Crows $1.07 Demons $8.50

William Hill: Crows $1.09 Demons $7.50

What to make of Melbourne? They started the season on a high with a free-flowing win over Gold Coast before capitulating after quarter-time against GWS. One thing is for sure – anything but their very best won’t be anywhere near good enough against the Crows. The multi-pronged Adelaide attack of Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins, Eddie Betts and Tom Lynch is feasting on early-season midfield dominance. The Demons’ front half is also looking much more potent with the addition of Jesse Hogan and Jeff Garlett.

Key: It’s early days, but new coach Phil Walsh’s decision to give the captaincy to Tex Walker shapes as an inspired one.

Tip: Crows by 42 points

Sydney v Greater Western Sydney at SCG 4.35pm

Head to Head: Swans 5 Giants 1

Last clash: Round 15 2014 – Swans 15.16 (106) bt Giants 8.12 (60) at SCG

Tab Sportsbet: Swans $1.10 Giants $7.00

William Hill: Swans $1.12 Giants $6.25

The big talking point is the absence of Adam Goodes, who has decided he would be better off playing in the reserves for the first time since 1998 than wearing the sub’s vest. Other than what to do with their two-time Brownlow medallist and club icon, the Swans appear to have few concerns. The Giants won the corresponding fixture last year and have taken further steps in the right direction in the following 12 months. Cam McCarthy is looking like a very handy key-forward foil for Jeremy Cameron.

Key: Powerhouse ruckman Shane Mumford would love to give the Swans another reminder that allowing him to cross town and join the Giants was a big mistake.

Tip: Swans by 22 points

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North Melbourne v Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium 7.20pm

Head to Head: Kangaroos 21 Power 8

Last clash: Round 3 2014 – Kangaroos 14.13 (97) bt Power 13.12 (90) at Etihad Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Kangaroos $2.10 Power $1.75

William Hill: Kangaroos $2.12 Power $1.72

Will the real North Melbourne please stand up? Is it the team which embarrassed Brisbane last weekend or the mob which meekly capitulated to Adelaide in round one? The Kangas are certain to face fired-up opposition this weekend, with the highly rated Port Adelaide having started the season 0-2. Losing Nick Dal Santo to a serious hamstring injury is a big blow for Brad Scott.

Key: If Todd Goldstein can get the job done in the ruck – as he so often does – North will be well on their way to victory. Port’s Matthew Lobbe remains sidelined and Jarrad Redden was dropped, meaning Paddy Ryder will be asked to do the bulk of the ruck work.

Tip: Power by 10 points

Brisbane v Richmond at Gabba 7.20pm

Head to Head: Lions 8 Tigers 15 drawn 1

Last clash: Round 16 2014 – Tigers 12.7 (79) bt Lions 7.12 (54) at MCG

Tab Sportsbet: Lions $2.75 Tigers $1.45

William Hill: Lions $2.75 Tigers $1.45

Richmond don’t tend to win when Brett Deledio is absent. But Brisbane don’t tend to beat Richmond, having dropped their past seven matches to the Tigers. So something will have to give. The Lions are rightly furious at the season-ending knee injury suffered by young forward Michael Close on the Astro Turf outside the boundary line at Etihad Stadium last week. The Tigers are boosted by the return of talented half-forward Chris Knights, who has had a horrendous run on the injury front.

Key: In Jack Riewoldt, Richmond have the standout key forward on display. He could well prove to be the difference.

Tip: Tigers by 20 points

SUNDAY, April 19

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs at Aurora Stadium 1.10pm

Head to Head: Hawks 79 Bulldogs 75 drawn 2

Last clash: Round 19 2014 – Hawks 16.11 (107) bt Bulldogs 6.9 (45) at Aurora Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Hawks $1.09 Bulldogs $7.50

William Hill: Hawks $1.10 Bulldogs $7.25

Ultra-competitive Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson would never admit as much publicly, but last weekend’s narrow loss to Essendon might turn out to be no bad thing for the Hawks, who were being dubbed as “near certainties” for a third straight flag by some excitable pundits just one week into the campaign. They head to their second home in Launceston to take on the Bulldogs, who look a rejuvenated outfit under new coach Luke Beveridge. Much of the excitement surrounds Marcus Bontempelli – and understandably so – but there are plenty of other things to like about the young pups being expertly led by skipper Bob Murphy.

Key: Jarryd Roughead was well beaten last week by Michael Hurley. The big Hawk rarely plays a bad game – two in a row is almost unthinkable.

Tip: Hawks by 35 points

Geelong v Gold Coast at Simonds Stadium 3.20pm

Head to Head: Cats 4 Suns 1

Last clash: Round 14 2014 – Suns 17.16 (118) bt Cats 11.12 (78) at Metricon Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Cats $1.14 Suns $5.75

William Hill: Cats $1.14 Suns $5.75

All five previous encounters between these two sides have been billed as Geelong v Gary Ablett. The marketing folk are going to have to come up with something different this time, with Ablett sidelined indefinitely due to a shoulder injury. It’s the perfect time for some of the other Suns to step up and fill the void. But it will be a very tough ask against a Cats team smarting from two straight heavy losses, including one by Fremantle on Geelong’s home deck. The return of Jimmy Bartel and Steven Motlop swings the pendulum further in the Cats’ favour.

Key: Motlop owes the Cats a big one after the club omitted him last week for getting on the beers a few days before the season opener. Heaven help the Suns if he gets on a roll on Sunday.

Tip: Cats by 29 points

West Coast v Fremantle at Domain Stadium 4.40pm

Head to Head: Eagles 21 Dockers 19

Last clash: Round 15 2014 – Dockers 13.10 (88) bt Eagles 11.15 (81) at Domain Stadium

Tab Sportsbet: Eagles $3.25 Dockers $1.35

William Hill: Eagles $3.40 Dockers $1.32

Fremantle hold the balance of power out west and have won the past five derbies. Losing Hayden Ballantyne to a two-match suspension is a blow, but one Ross Lyon should be able to cover for. West Coast’s lack of fit key defenders is set to be an ongoing issue, with Matthew Pavlich likely to present a major headache for Eagles coach Adam Simpson. Aaron Sandilands’ ruck battle with Nic Naitanui could well be a game-defining one.

Key: It would be a shock if Freo’s big-bodied mids Nat Fyfe, David Mundy and Michael Barlow didn’t pocket all six Brownlow Medal votes on offer in last weekend’s big win over Geelong. Once again, they will again take a power of stopping.

Tip: Dockers by 20 points.

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