Predictions of a bumper mid-year retail sales season are being questioned as cost-of-living pressures continue to bite.

The peak body representing the country’s retailers is tipping Australians will spend more this year than in 2022 on mid-year sales – but some economists aren’t so sure.

The Australian Retailers Association this month released the results from a poll indicating shoppers would spend $9.3 billion on sales this year, up $500 million from 2022.

Fewer Australians overall were planning to splash out – 5.8 million, down 400,000 from 2022, according to the Roy Morgan SMS poll of more than 3000 people.

But they were expecting to spend an average of $1616, up almost $200 from 2022.

“We’re in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis and this is certainly reflected by the fact that 400,000 fewer Australians will be opening their wallets in the mid-year/EOFY sales,” ARA CEO Paul Zahra said.

The poll was conducted between May 19 and May 24, before the Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise rate hike on June 7.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence figures, based on 1480 interviews in the week to last Sunday, found consumer confidence was at its lowest level since April 2020.

ANZ senior economist Adelaide Timbrell said confidence had been at extremely weak levels for about 15 weeks but had dropped even more sharply since the rate hike.

Confidence about current and future financial conditions was close to their lowest level since March 2020, Timbrell said.

Commonwealth Bank’s Household Spending Intentions Index, which is based in part on the bank’s internal data covering 2.5 million households, indicates consumer spending has been dropping since last August.

Senior CBA economist Belinda Allen told AAP her most recent data was for the end of May and she was expecting further moderation in June.

“You would expect that to continue in June, just because we’ve had further rate hikes as well; we’ve had further roll-off of fixed rate mortgages onto variable rate mortgages on much higher interest rates,” Allen said.

“Definitely all signs that we’ve seen in 2023 to date has been consumer spending does continue to slow.”

She said there had been a particular weakness in spending over the past few months on household goods such as appliances and furniture, as well as clothing and general retail.

But for those who can afford it there should be deals on offer.

Ebay.com.au, which is offering 20 per cent off eligible items in its end of financial year sale, expects 35 per cent of Australians will spend $500 or more this year.

Amazon Australia, which is holding its annual Prime Day sales on July 11 and 12, said last year it sold 300 million items worldwide.

The online retail giant has added 1000 Australian workers to support the sale, Amazon Australia country manager Janet Menzies told AAP.

– AAP